WASHINGTON America's recession “probably” will end this year if the government succeeds in bolstering the banking system, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday in a rare television interview.
In carefully hedged remarks in a taped interview with CBS's “60 Minutes,” Bernanke expressed a bit more optimism that this could be done.
Still, Bernanke stressed – as he did to Congress last month – that the prospects for the recession ending this year and a recovery taking root next year hinge on a difficult task: getting banks to lend more freely again and getting the financial markets to work more normally.
“We've seen some progress in the financial markets, absolutely,” Bernanke said. “But until we get that stabilized and working normally, we're not going to see recovery.
“But we do have a plan. We're working on it. And I do think that we will get it stabilized, and we'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year.”
Even if the recession, which began in December 2007, ends this year, the unemployment rate will keep climbing past the current quarter-century high of 8.1 percent, Bernanke said.
Bernanke said, though, that the U.S. has averted the risk of plunging into a depression. “I think we've gotten past that.”
When the financial crisis intensified last fall, Bernanke and Bush Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson rushed to Capitol Hill for help. That led to swift enactment of a $700 billion bailout package in October.
Looking back, Bernanke said the world came close to a financial meltdown. Asked how close, Bernanke responded: “It was very close.”
Bernanke admitted that the Fed could have done a better job of overseeing banks. Critics say lax regulatory oversight contributed to the crisis.
Bernanke said he believes all the big banks the Fed regulates are solvent. Big banks won't fail under his watch, Bernanke said – though, if necessary, the government should try to “wind it down in a safe way.”
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