Friday, March 27, 2009

Mecklenburg home prices appear to be leveling off

November brought the beginnings of stability. However, areawide sales have been down by double digits for months.

By Stella M. Hopkins
shopkins@charlotteobserver.com

Mecklenburg home prices held fairly steady in recent months, a rare glimmer of hope for local housing, according to unusually detailed data released Wednesday for the first time.

Mecklenburg's average selling price was even up a bit in February, compared with January. The one-month uptick bucked the overall region's downward trend for transactions through the Carolina Multiple Listing Services.

Prices remain well below levels a year ago but the stability from November through February is notable given the bad state of the economy nationwide and in Charlotte, which is especially vulnerable because of the banks' suffering. The number of sales remained dramatically down in Mecklenburg.

“Four months is some stability in the short run,” said Adam York, an economist with Wachovia, now part of Wells Fargo. It's hard to say whether it will last, he added, but “if nothing else, a temporary respite is welcome in this environment.”

The MLS accounts for the majority of sales within roughly a 50-mile radius of Charlotte. About 90 percent of those sales come from an 8-county region including Mecklenburg. That region includes S.C. sales in Lancaster and York, where the Carolina MLS is not the dominant Realtors' group and so accounts for a smaller share of the market.

MLS transactions include some new home sales and most existing sales but not for-sale-by-owner.

They also do not include all foreclosure sales, which typically pull prices lower.

Nationwide, the housing industry has been struggling amid a severe downturn. Tax credits and low interest rates are providing some relief, but rising unemployment is expected to further curb sales and drive up foreclosures. Still, several national housing indicators showed modest improvement in February, compared with January. That is at least partly due to improved weather, dramatic cutbacks by builders and high numbers of foreclosures, which boost sales totals.

“I don't think we want to call any one month, especially a winter month, indicative of the coming trend, but we'll take the good news as we get it,” York said.

Last month, Charlotte-area MLS sales fell 38 percent compared with February 2008, marking the 21st consecutive month of double-digit declines.

In Mecklenburg, the decline was a steeper 44 percent, with just 580 houses sold versus 1,045 a year ago. Mecklenburg's average price was down 16 percent, a little worse than the area's 15.5 percent drop.

But at $198,152, the average Mecklenburg price was up from January, while the region saw a decline. Mecklenburg prices have fluctuated in a narrow range for four months, raising hopes that they may have reached the sought-after bottom.

Buyers waiting for more price declines are realizing that might not happen, so they want to close deals, said Donna Anderson, president of the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association, parent of the MLS.

“We feel confident that things are moving in the right direction,” said Anderson, a Realtor with Cottingham-Chalk/Bissell-Hayes.

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