It may not be the most widespread measure of housing prices, but if you want to follow a powerful driver, look at rents. Specifically, it's the rents Americans pay on condos, apartments or houses that are about the same size, and share the same neighborhood as your ranch or colonial, that in the end determine what your house is worth.
In recent reports, Deutsche Bank demonstrates how steady or even falling rents have pulled down housing prices, to the point where in many markets it costs about the same amount to own as to lease. That's a golden mean that America hasn't seen in almost a decade. The DB research also offers convincing evidence that the wrenching adjustment in housing prices is finished for much of the nation, with a bit more pain to come in selected areas.
In normal times, people won't pay much less to lease a house than to own it. After all, if you're paying rent instead of a mortgage and taxes, you still get to enjoy the same rec room, chef's kitchen, and casita for visiting grandparents. So the surest sign of frenzy appears when owning becomes far more expensive than renting. That's precisely what happened during the last bubble. And the surest sign that prices have fully adjusted arrives when the ratio of what people pay in rent versus what owners spend on the same property returns to its historic average. That brings us to the Deutsche Bank studies. Its REIT research team first established a benchmark for a "normal" ratio of rents to ownership costs -- what it calls ATMP, or after-tax mortgage payment -- for 53 U.S. cities.
On average, DB found that families across America were spending about 87% as much to rent as to own in 1999. Hence, they were traditionally willing to pay a premium as homeowners, though not a big one. Given that analysis, it's likely that prices will fall another 5% or so nationwide. The drop could even be slightly greater. One reason: Rents, the force that govern housing prices, are still falling.
Source: Forbes, Shawn Tully, (2/12/10)
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