According to the most recent REALTORS® Confidence Index, 39% of recent buyers purchased a home with a Federal Housing Administration-insured loan. REALTORS® who took part in the November survey also reported that the number of first-time homebuyers continued to climb to 51%. The RCI results also indicated that distressed sales increased to 33% of all home sales last month, and that both investors and first-time home buyers are competing for these properties. The preponderance of distressed properties on the market has also influenced buyers' perceptions of other homes for sale. Realtors report that many buyers have pricing expectations that treat every property as if it were in foreclosure.
In addition, those surveyed expressed ongoing concerns with the impact of the Home Valuation Code of Conduct on recent appraisals. According to some survey respondents, inexperienced or out-of-area appraisers continue to rely heavily on sales prices of distressed properties, even when other comps are available.
Source: NAR
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Exterior remodeling: best bang for your buck
Despite a slow market and a slight decrease in the resale value of most remodeling projects, Realtors report that the smartest home improvement investments may also be some of the least expensive. Results from the 2009 Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report show that small-scale exterior projects are the most profitable at resale, according to estimates by REALTORS® who completed a recent survey.
Here are the highlights:
· On a national level, eight out of the top 10 projects in terms of costs recouped were exterior replacement projects that cost less than $14,000.
· Certain types of door and siding replacements, as well as wood deck additions all returned more than 80% of project costs upon resale. A steel entry door replacement--a new addition to this year's list--recouped 128.9% of costs, followed by upscale fiber-cement sliding replacements at 83.6%. Wood deck additions recouped 80.6% of costs.
· On a national level, the project with the biggest improvement from 2008 was the attic bedroom addition, recouping 83.1% of remodeling costs compared to 73.8% in 2008. The only other interior project that landed in the top 10 was a minor kitchen remodel with 78.3% costs recouped.
· Other exterior projects in the top 10 include midrange vinyl and upscale foam-backed vinyl sliding replacements, which returned more than 79% of costs. In addition, several types of window replacements - midrange wood, midrange vinyl, and upscale vinyl-all returned more than 76% of costs upon sale.
Similar to last year's report, the least profitable remodeling projects in terms of resale value were home office remodels and sunroom additions, returning only 48.1% and 50.7% of project costs.
Source: NAR
Here are the highlights:
· On a national level, eight out of the top 10 projects in terms of costs recouped were exterior replacement projects that cost less than $14,000.
· Certain types of door and siding replacements, as well as wood deck additions all returned more than 80% of project costs upon resale. A steel entry door replacement--a new addition to this year's list--recouped 128.9% of costs, followed by upscale fiber-cement sliding replacements at 83.6%. Wood deck additions recouped 80.6% of costs.
· On a national level, the project with the biggest improvement from 2008 was the attic bedroom addition, recouping 83.1% of remodeling costs compared to 73.8% in 2008. The only other interior project that landed in the top 10 was a minor kitchen remodel with 78.3% costs recouped.
· Other exterior projects in the top 10 include midrange vinyl and upscale foam-backed vinyl sliding replacements, which returned more than 79% of costs. In addition, several types of window replacements - midrange wood, midrange vinyl, and upscale vinyl-all returned more than 76% of costs upon sale.
Similar to last year's report, the least profitable remodeling projects in terms of resale value were home office remodels and sunroom additions, returning only 48.1% and 50.7% of project costs.
Source: NAR
Foreclosure evictions suspended through the holidays
In an effort to help families facing a foreclosure in the midst of the holiday season, both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae made announcements recently and suspended foreclosure evictions from December 19, 2009 through January 3, 2010. In Freddie Mac's announcement, the company said it will suspend all evictions involving foreclosed, occupied single family and two to four unit properties that had Freddie Mac-owned mortgages. Fannie Mae had no inclusions and said all owner-occupants and tenants living in foreclosed properties the company holds will not be subject to evictions during this time frame, and Fannie Mae said it will also support the efforts of the servicers it works with that are taking similar actions.
Zenta to expand in Charlotte adding 1,000 jobs
Governor Beverly Perdue announced the creation of 1,000 new jobs in the Charlotte area over the next five years by Zenta, a knowledge process outsourcing and business process outsourcing company.
The company, which employs a staff of more than 4,000 worldwide, has offices in New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, London, Mumbai and Chennai, India.
Zenta offers a full range of back-office, voice and onsite support solutions for credit card services, consumer lending servicing, mortgage services and real estate analytics.
The company, which employs a staff of more than 4,000 worldwide, has offices in New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, London, Mumbai and Chennai, India.
Zenta offers a full range of back-office, voice and onsite support solutions for credit card services, consumer lending servicing, mortgage services and real estate analytics.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Charlotte home prices rise for 1st time in two years
By Stella M. Hopkins
shopkins@charlotteobserver.com
Posted: Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009
Charlotte-area home prices in November inched up for the first time in two years and home sales jumped again.
The average sales price last month of $195,244 marks a gain of slightly more than 1 percent from November 2008, according to results released this morning by the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association.
That was the first yearly price gain since November 2007 for transactions through the association's Carolina Multiple Listing Services. The past year has seen several months of double-digit price declines.
For the year, the average price is a little ahead of 2004 levels, meaning that people who have been in their homes for several years are probably still sitting on gains.
MLS sales in November rose a hefty 31 percent compared with a year ago as people rushed to take advantage of the first time homebuyers tax credit that had been set to expire last month. Congress, under heavy pressure from the housing industry, extended and expanded the credit. The November gain is even bigger than October's year-to-year jump of almost 20 percent, the first increase in more than two years.
MLS deals account for nearly all transactions in the Charlotte area.
The big gains come on comparison to an extremely weak market last fall, when the nation's financial system cratered. In Charlotte, that brought the loss of Wachovia's headquarters and mounting worries about job losses. Home sales plummeted in October 2008 and continued to sink through the winter.
Despite the jump, the 2,000 houses, townhouses and condos sold last month in the area represents a sales level below that of 2003.
shopkins@charlotteobserver.com
Posted: Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009
Charlotte-area home prices in November inched up for the first time in two years and home sales jumped again.
The average sales price last month of $195,244 marks a gain of slightly more than 1 percent from November 2008, according to results released this morning by the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association.
That was the first yearly price gain since November 2007 for transactions through the association's Carolina Multiple Listing Services. The past year has seen several months of double-digit price declines.
For the year, the average price is a little ahead of 2004 levels, meaning that people who have been in their homes for several years are probably still sitting on gains.
MLS sales in November rose a hefty 31 percent compared with a year ago as people rushed to take advantage of the first time homebuyers tax credit that had been set to expire last month. Congress, under heavy pressure from the housing industry, extended and expanded the credit. The November gain is even bigger than October's year-to-year jump of almost 20 percent, the first increase in more than two years.
MLS deals account for nearly all transactions in the Charlotte area.
The big gains come on comparison to an extremely weak market last fall, when the nation's financial system cratered. In Charlotte, that brought the loss of Wachovia's headquarters and mounting worries about job losses. Home sales plummeted in October 2008 and continued to sink through the winter.
Despite the jump, the 2,000 houses, townhouses and condos sold last month in the area represents a sales level below that of 2003.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Drop in unemployment could have little impact on default numbers
The unemployment rate dropped in November, according to the U.S. Labor Department, as companies shed the fewest number of jobs since the recession kicked in two years ago. Government statistics show that last month, the jobless rate edged down to 10.0 percent, falling from the 26-year-high 10.2 percent hit in October.
The growing consensus within the mortgage industry is that unemployment is now the primary driver pushing delinquency numbers higher, so the upbeat November labor report is likely a hopeful sign that the pace of loan deterioration could subside sooner rather than later.
But analysts at Amherst Securities Group say their research tells a different story. The firm is a holding company for financial firms working with institutional investors of mortgage-related assets, and a study from its head of residential debt, Laurie Goodman, says borrowers who have been hit hard by falling home prices and owe more than their home is worth are more likely to fall behind on their mortgage payments than homeowners who lose their job.
According to Goodman, borrowers who are underwater with combined loan-to-value (LTV) ratios greater than 120 percent pose a higher delinquency risk. This "combined" LTV includes first mortgages on the home, as well as secondary home equity lines of credit taken out before the bust by a large number of homeowners who thought property values could only go up. Some estimates put second lien debt at over a trillion dollars.
According to Goodman, the default trigger is critical because policy will be shaped around the answer: is the rise in delinquencies stemming from negative equity or unemployment? Goodman points to the plain and simple correlation of default and unemployment increases - mortgages defaults began to tick upward when home prices started plummeting, she says, long before the job market began to decline.
In a much more complex analysis, Goodman compared default rates with unemployment and negative equity in various loan categories. She found that unemployment only became a factor when the homeowner's outstanding mortgage was 20 percent more than the home's value, an LTV ratio of 120 percent or more. For those homeowners who had positive equity in their home but lost their job, they still found a way to keep their payments current.
The findings of Goodman's team could soon be put to the test - while home prices in some markets have begun to inch upward, most market analysts say there's still farther to go before prices hit bottom. The Amherst report demonstrates that improvement in the housing market may not be as tightly linked to unemployment as some might think, and others say the likely sequence of events for an overall upturn puts housing out in front. According to a contributed report on StockTradersDaily.com, until there is a housing recovery, there will not be an American economic recovery. The story points to the boom that ended in mid-2007 as an example, where one of every six jobs was created in the housing sector.
Source: DSNews.com
The growing consensus within the mortgage industry is that unemployment is now the primary driver pushing delinquency numbers higher, so the upbeat November labor report is likely a hopeful sign that the pace of loan deterioration could subside sooner rather than later.
But analysts at Amherst Securities Group say their research tells a different story. The firm is a holding company for financial firms working with institutional investors of mortgage-related assets, and a study from its head of residential debt, Laurie Goodman, says borrowers who have been hit hard by falling home prices and owe more than their home is worth are more likely to fall behind on their mortgage payments than homeowners who lose their job.
According to Goodman, borrowers who are underwater with combined loan-to-value (LTV) ratios greater than 120 percent pose a higher delinquency risk. This "combined" LTV includes first mortgages on the home, as well as secondary home equity lines of credit taken out before the bust by a large number of homeowners who thought property values could only go up. Some estimates put second lien debt at over a trillion dollars.
According to Goodman, the default trigger is critical because policy will be shaped around the answer: is the rise in delinquencies stemming from negative equity or unemployment? Goodman points to the plain and simple correlation of default and unemployment increases - mortgages defaults began to tick upward when home prices started plummeting, she says, long before the job market began to decline.
In a much more complex analysis, Goodman compared default rates with unemployment and negative equity in various loan categories. She found that unemployment only became a factor when the homeowner's outstanding mortgage was 20 percent more than the home's value, an LTV ratio of 120 percent or more. For those homeowners who had positive equity in their home but lost their job, they still found a way to keep their payments current.
The findings of Goodman's team could soon be put to the test - while home prices in some markets have begun to inch upward, most market analysts say there's still farther to go before prices hit bottom. The Amherst report demonstrates that improvement in the housing market may not be as tightly linked to unemployment as some might think, and others say the likely sequence of events for an overall upturn puts housing out in front. According to a contributed report on StockTradersDaily.com, until there is a housing recovery, there will not be an American economic recovery. The story points to the boom that ended in mid-2007 as an example, where one of every six jobs was created in the housing sector.
Source: DSNews.com
NC not as stressed as most
AP Index nears national high-stress level
The Associated Press' Economic Stress Index remains at 10.1 nationwide in October, compared to 6.9 in October 2008. The index is calculated as a score from 1 to 100 based on foreclosure, bankruptcy, and unemployment. An area is considered stressed when the score exceeds 11. About 37 percent of the nation's 3,141 counties had scores higher than 11 in October.
The five states with the highest overall score in October all experienced severe housing downturns:
1. Nevada, 21.95 index score
2. Michigan, 17.36
3. California, 16.48
4. Florida, 15.4
5. Arizona, 14.37
The least-stressed states were those that have mostly escaped housing issues:
1. North Dakota, 3.89
2. South Dakota, 5.14
3. Nebraska, 5.51
4. Vermont, 6.43
5. Montana, 6.64
The Associated Press' Economic Stress Index remains at 10.1 nationwide in October, compared to 6.9 in October 2008. The index is calculated as a score from 1 to 100 based on foreclosure, bankruptcy, and unemployment. An area is considered stressed when the score exceeds 11. About 37 percent of the nation's 3,141 counties had scores higher than 11 in October.
The five states with the highest overall score in October all experienced severe housing downturns:
1. Nevada, 21.95 index score
2. Michigan, 17.36
3. California, 16.48
4. Florida, 15.4
5. Arizona, 14.37
The least-stressed states were those that have mostly escaped housing issues:
1. North Dakota, 3.89
2. South Dakota, 5.14
3. Nebraska, 5.51
4. Vermont, 6.43
5. Montana, 6.64
New FHA condo rules
New rules from the Federal Housing Administration could make it easier to get FHA-backed home loans for condominiums. The rules, which went into effect yesterday, were written to address current market conditions and the glut of empty condominiums left following the real estate bust.
The biggest changes include reducing the number of units in a new condominium that must be owner-occupied, eliminating a rule that banned loans to condos with "right of first-refusal" language in association bylaws, increasing the number of units that can have FHA financing, and cutting the expensive requirement of having an attorney review condominium documents before a sale.
Some of the rule changes, however, are temporary through December 2010. Others actually tighten FHA guidelines. For example, as of today, condos are eligible only if no more than 15 percent of units are more than 30 days past due on association fees. Also, while other states are now allowed to independently approve FHA mortgages, Florida is still required to have projects submit applications to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The biggest changes include reducing the number of units in a new condominium that must be owner-occupied, eliminating a rule that banned loans to condos with "right of first-refusal" language in association bylaws, increasing the number of units that can have FHA financing, and cutting the expensive requirement of having an attorney review condominium documents before a sale.
Some of the rule changes, however, are temporary through December 2010. Others actually tighten FHA guidelines. For example, as of today, condos are eligible only if no more than 15 percent of units are more than 30 days past due on association fees. Also, while other states are now allowed to independently approve FHA mortgages, Florida is still required to have projects submit applications to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Nine Consecutive Gains for Pending Home Sales
Pending home sales have risen for nine months in a row, a first for the series of the index since its inception in 2001, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September, and is 31.8 percent above October 2008 when it was 86.6. The rise from a year ago is the biggest annual increase ever recorded for the index, which is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales are experiencing a pendulum swing. “Keep in mind that housing had been underperforming over most of the past year. Based on the demographics of our growing population, existing-home sales should be in the range of 5.5 million to 6.0 million annually, but we were well below the 5-million mark before the home buyer tax credit stimulus,” he said. “This means the tax credit is helping unleash a pent-up demand from a large pool of financially qualified renters, much more than borrowing sales from the future.”
By Region
* Pending sales in the Northeast surged 19.9 percent to 100.2 in October and is 44.2 percent above a year ago.
* In the Midwest, the index rose 11.6 percent to 109.6 and is 36.6 percent higher than October 2008.
* Sales in the South increased 5.4 percent to an index of 115.4, which is 31.6 percent above a year ago.
* In the West, the index fell 11.2 percent to 127.7 but is 21.9 percent above October 2008.
Not Out of the Woods Yet
Yun cautioned that home sales could dip in the months ahead. “The expanded tax credit has only been available for the past three weeks, but the time between when buyers start looking at homes until they close on a sale can take anywhere from three to five months. Given the lag time, we could see a temporary decline in closed existing-home sales from December until early spring when we get another surge, but the weak job market remains a major concern and could slow the recovery process.
“Still, as inventories continue to decline and balance is gradually restored between buyers and sellers, we should reach self-sustaining housing conditions and firming home prices in most areas around the middle of 2010. That would mean broad wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families,” Yun said.
Source: NAR
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September, and is 31.8 percent above October 2008 when it was 86.6. The rise from a year ago is the biggest annual increase ever recorded for the index, which is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales are experiencing a pendulum swing. “Keep in mind that housing had been underperforming over most of the past year. Based on the demographics of our growing population, existing-home sales should be in the range of 5.5 million to 6.0 million annually, but we were well below the 5-million mark before the home buyer tax credit stimulus,” he said. “This means the tax credit is helping unleash a pent-up demand from a large pool of financially qualified renters, much more than borrowing sales from the future.”
By Region
* Pending sales in the Northeast surged 19.9 percent to 100.2 in October and is 44.2 percent above a year ago.
* In the Midwest, the index rose 11.6 percent to 109.6 and is 36.6 percent higher than October 2008.
* Sales in the South increased 5.4 percent to an index of 115.4, which is 31.6 percent above a year ago.
* In the West, the index fell 11.2 percent to 127.7 but is 21.9 percent above October 2008.
Not Out of the Woods Yet
Yun cautioned that home sales could dip in the months ahead. “The expanded tax credit has only been available for the past three weeks, but the time between when buyers start looking at homes until they close on a sale can take anywhere from three to five months. Given the lag time, we could see a temporary decline in closed existing-home sales from December until early spring when we get another surge, but the weak job market remains a major concern and could slow the recovery process.
“Still, as inventories continue to decline and balance is gradually restored between buyers and sellers, we should reach self-sustaining housing conditions and firming home prices in most areas around the middle of 2010. That would mean broad wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families,” Yun said.
Source: NAR
Guidelines Aim to Ease Short Sales
By RUTH SIMON
The Obama administration laid out final guidelines on Monday that should make it easier for some financially troubled borrowers to sell their homes.
The guidelines are designed to encourage the use of short sales, transactions in which the borrower with lender approval sells the home for less than what is owed on the loan. The program also makes it easier for borrowers to voluntarily transfer ownership of properties through a "deed in lieu of foreclosure."
Short sales can result in higher prices than foreclosures and can be less damaging to local neighborhoods, in part because homes aren't left vacant and exposed to vandalism. But these transactions are often difficult to complete.
Under the plan, borrowers will receive $1,500 from the government if they sell their homes for less than the amount of their mortgages. Mortgage-servicing companies will also receive $1,000 for each completed short sale. The program is open to borrowers who may be eligible for the government's loan-modification program, but don't end up qualifying, or are delinquent on their modification, or request a short sale or deed-in-lieu transaction.
The short-sale program is the latest addition to the Obama administration's $75 billion foreclosure-prevention plan, which includes incentives for mortgage companies and investors to rework troubled loans. The government first said in May that it would include short sales in the program, but it has taken months to finalize the details.
Under the new guidelines, second-mortgage holders can receive up to $3,000 of the sales proceeds in exchange for releasing their liens. Investors who hold the first mortgages, meanwhile, can collect up to $1,000 from the government for allowing such payments.
Borrowers who complete a short sale under the program must be "fully released" from future liability for the debt, according to the guidelines
The Obama administration laid out final guidelines on Monday that should make it easier for some financially troubled borrowers to sell their homes.
The guidelines are designed to encourage the use of short sales, transactions in which the borrower with lender approval sells the home for less than what is owed on the loan. The program also makes it easier for borrowers to voluntarily transfer ownership of properties through a "deed in lieu of foreclosure."
Short sales can result in higher prices than foreclosures and can be less damaging to local neighborhoods, in part because homes aren't left vacant and exposed to vandalism. But these transactions are often difficult to complete.
Under the plan, borrowers will receive $1,500 from the government if they sell their homes for less than the amount of their mortgages. Mortgage-servicing companies will also receive $1,000 for each completed short sale. The program is open to borrowers who may be eligible for the government's loan-modification program, but don't end up qualifying, or are delinquent on their modification, or request a short sale or deed-in-lieu transaction.
The short-sale program is the latest addition to the Obama administration's $75 billion foreclosure-prevention plan, which includes incentives for mortgage companies and investors to rework troubled loans. The government first said in May that it would include short sales in the program, but it has taken months to finalize the details.
Under the new guidelines, second-mortgage holders can receive up to $3,000 of the sales proceeds in exchange for releasing their liens. Investors who hold the first mortgages, meanwhile, can collect up to $1,000 from the government for allowing such payments.
Borrowers who complete a short sale under the program must be "fully released" from future liability for the debt, according to the guidelines
Option ARMs: Housing recovery killer?
"It sounded good at the time."
These exotic mortgages allowed home buyers to come to closing with little cash and choose, monthly, how much to pay: interest and principal, interest only, or a minimum amount less than the interest due.
Of course, the last option is the one 93% of option-ARM buyers selected, according to a new report released this week by Standard & Poors.
But eventually, everyone has to pay the piper.
Nearly all of the 350,000 option-ARM borrowers owe more than when they first bought their homes thanks to the unpaid interest accumulating. And many loans written during the first big wave, which started in 2004, are getting ready for their five-year reset, when they become standard amortizing loans. Additionally, some newer loans will reset early if the accumulated interest has pushed the loan-to-value ratio above 110% to 125%.
That means borrowers are about to start paying very hefty prices for their homes. In one scenario outlined in the S&P report, the payment on a $400,000 mortgage jumps from $1,287 to $2,593.
25% default rate
But that doesn't just spell bad news for borrowers. Some industry pessimists say the looming default problem could have the power to derail the nascent housing market recovery. "The crux of the matter is that as soon as these mortgages recast, the history is that they will default," said Brian Grow, one of the S&P report's coauthors.
And the newer the loans, the worse they will perform, the report said. The last year that any option-ARMs were issued was 2007. In the first 20 months after issuance, this vintage of option-ARMs had an average default rate of just over 22%.
That includes all option-ARMs issued in 2007. But if you calculate default rates for only 2007 option-ARM borrowers who are now underwater, the default rate jumps to 25% after just 20 months, according to S&P.
So, while there may not be an awful lot of these loans out there, their high default rates will have an out-sized influence on housing markets, adding to already bloated foreclosure inventories and driving prices down further.
Bubble markets
And the markets where they'll produce the most foreclosures are still among the most vulnerable in the nation.
Option ARMs were most popular in bubble markets -- California, Nevada, Florida and Arizona -- where double digit home annual price increases put the cost of buying a home out of reach.
In fact, 60% of these loans went to residents of California and other Western states, places where prices have fallen the most, according to report coauthor Diane Westerback. "The geography is negative for these products," she said.
Many borrowers in these places could only afford a home if they chose the option ARM. Many counted on continued hot market conditions to add value to their homes. The extra equity could then be tapped to pay their bills.
We all know how that worked out.
Home prices in many of the markets where option ARMs are most concentrated have fallen 30%, 40% or more. When the loans recast, most borrowers will find themselves severely underwater.
"Because borrowers of [options ARMs] are in a much worse position," said Westerback. "You'll see defaults rising very rapidly."
And most option ARM borrowers will not be good candidates for refinancing or mortgage modifications because their loan-to-value ratios will be far too high. Under the administration's Making Home Affordable program, for example, mortgages with balances that exceed 125% of the home's value are not eligible for help.
Not so white lies
There is another little problem that many option-ARM borrowers seeking refinancing would face: "Upwards of 80% of were stated-income loans," said Westerback.
These are the so-called "liar loans" in which lenders did not verify that borrowers earned as much money as they said they did. Lenders may not be able to modify mortgages because many of the borrowers' income could not stand up to the scrutiny. Borrowers may also not want to go through underwriting again because they could be held legally liable for deliberate inaccuracies on their original applications.
Add to those conditions the still fragile economy and high unemployment rates, and you have a recipe for disaster. To top of page
These exotic mortgages allowed home buyers to come to closing with little cash and choose, monthly, how much to pay: interest and principal, interest only, or a minimum amount less than the interest due.
Of course, the last option is the one 93% of option-ARM buyers selected, according to a new report released this week by Standard & Poors.
But eventually, everyone has to pay the piper.
Nearly all of the 350,000 option-ARM borrowers owe more than when they first bought their homes thanks to the unpaid interest accumulating. And many loans written during the first big wave, which started in 2004, are getting ready for their five-year reset, when they become standard amortizing loans. Additionally, some newer loans will reset early if the accumulated interest has pushed the loan-to-value ratio above 110% to 125%.
That means borrowers are about to start paying very hefty prices for their homes. In one scenario outlined in the S&P report, the payment on a $400,000 mortgage jumps from $1,287 to $2,593.
25% default rate
But that doesn't just spell bad news for borrowers. Some industry pessimists say the looming default problem could have the power to derail the nascent housing market recovery. "The crux of the matter is that as soon as these mortgages recast, the history is that they will default," said Brian Grow, one of the S&P report's coauthors.
And the newer the loans, the worse they will perform, the report said. The last year that any option-ARMs were issued was 2007. In the first 20 months after issuance, this vintage of option-ARMs had an average default rate of just over 22%.
That includes all option-ARMs issued in 2007. But if you calculate default rates for only 2007 option-ARM borrowers who are now underwater, the default rate jumps to 25% after just 20 months, according to S&P.
So, while there may not be an awful lot of these loans out there, their high default rates will have an out-sized influence on housing markets, adding to already bloated foreclosure inventories and driving prices down further.
Bubble markets
And the markets where they'll produce the most foreclosures are still among the most vulnerable in the nation.
Option ARMs were most popular in bubble markets -- California, Nevada, Florida and Arizona -- where double digit home annual price increases put the cost of buying a home out of reach.
In fact, 60% of these loans went to residents of California and other Western states, places where prices have fallen the most, according to report coauthor Diane Westerback. "The geography is negative for these products," she said.
Many borrowers in these places could only afford a home if they chose the option ARM. Many counted on continued hot market conditions to add value to their homes. The extra equity could then be tapped to pay their bills.
We all know how that worked out.
Home prices in many of the markets where option ARMs are most concentrated have fallen 30%, 40% or more. When the loans recast, most borrowers will find themselves severely underwater.
"Because borrowers of [options ARMs] are in a much worse position," said Westerback. "You'll see defaults rising very rapidly."
And most option ARM borrowers will not be good candidates for refinancing or mortgage modifications because their loan-to-value ratios will be far too high. Under the administration's Making Home Affordable program, for example, mortgages with balances that exceed 125% of the home's value are not eligible for help.
Not so white lies
There is another little problem that many option-ARM borrowers seeking refinancing would face: "Upwards of 80% of were stated-income loans," said Westerback.
These are the so-called "liar loans" in which lenders did not verify that borrowers earned as much money as they said they did. Lenders may not be able to modify mortgages because many of the borrowers' income could not stand up to the scrutiny. Borrowers may also not want to go through underwriting again because they could be held legally liable for deliberate inaccuracies on their original applications.
Add to those conditions the still fragile economy and high unemployment rates, and you have a recipe for disaster. To top of page
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