Thursday, April 30, 2009

Population Growing Fastest in Raleigh, North Carolina

North Carolina is attracting new residents faster than any other area in the United States according to a recent Census Bureau study. The Raleigh-Cary, North Carolina metro's population rose 4.3 percent between July 1, 2007 and July 1, 2008, gaining almost 45,000 people. Austin-Round Rock, Texas was the second fastest-growing metro, adding 60,000 to the area for a 3.8 percent increase.

In terms of actual numbers, the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area gained the most, adding more than 146,000 persons to its population. Three other metro areas also became home to more than 100,000 from 2007 to 2008, including Houston (130,000), Phoenix (116,000) and Atlanta (115,000).

Metropolitan areas in the South in general are also among the fastest growing immigrant destinations. Phoenix and Atlanta both have well over a half million immigrants, and Las Vegas and Orlando each have more than one-quarter million foreign-born residents.

Source: Census Bureau

Many markets undervalued

Good news for many markets, according to a new report by IHS Global Insight titled 'House Prices in America', for the nation, as a whole, the market is slightly undervalued and prices have fallen 9.9 percent from their peak in 2007.

For the fourth quarter, the rate of decline was the greatest in the current housing cycle, the study said. Statewide average home price declines for 2008 exceeded 20 percent in the four so-called 'sand' states Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada.

Open Houses Are Still Worth It, Practitioners Say

Despite a changing market, many real estate professionals say open houses are still a good way to showcase a home.

Open houses work just as well as they did a few years ago when the market was very competitive, says Trudy Severa, an associate with Long & Foster in Reston, Va.

"Anything you can do helps," says Severa. "It's a numbers game, and there is no way to know the residual effects [that an open house can have]."

Some practitioners have had success joining forces with others to produce a group tour. For instance, seven different practitioners recently held a neighborhood open house in Washington, D.C., where participants could view eight listings ranging in price from $500,000 to more than $1 million.

An open house can be an opportunity to talk to potential buyers who are interested but who might be unsure about the uncertain market, says Mario Rubio, a practitioner with Rubio Real Estate in Annandale,Va. He suggests having a loan officer/mortgage banker on hand at the event to answer questions.

Source: The Washington Times, Cary Lee Dailey (04/10/2009)

Fed sees signs recession may be easing

By JEANNINE AVERSA
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it see signs the recession is easing and that the economic outlook has "improved modestly" since last month.

Against that backdrop, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues left a key interest rate at a record low of between zero and 0.25 percent, and decided against taking any new steps to shore up the economy.

Aggressive action already taken - including a $1.2 trillion effort last month - should gradually help bolster economic activity, the Fed said. It did, however, leave the door open to future action if needed.

Fed policymakers offered a less dour assessment of the economy than the one provided at its previous meeting in mid-March.

"The economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower," the Fed said. The worst of the recession - in terms of lost economic activity - could be past.

The economic outlook has "improved modestly" since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of strains in financial markets, the Fed said. Even so, "economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time," the Fed added.

And, while consumer spending has shown "signs of stabilizing," it is still being constrained by rising unemployment, falling home values and hard-to-get credit, the Fed said.

Meanwhile, weak sales and credit difficulties have forced businesses to cut spending and lay off workers, the Fed said.

To nurture economic activity, the Fed pledged anew to keep its key bank lending rate at a record low "for an extended period." Economists predict the Fed will keep the rate there well into next year.

Looking ahead, the Fed didn't rule out expanding existing programs or creating new ones to bolster the economy.

At its March meeting, the Fed launched a $1.2 trillion effort to lower interest rates and get Americans to boost spending, which would help spur economic activity.

Specifically, the Fed in March said it would start buying government debt - $300 billion over the next six months - and would buy an additional $850 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities and debt from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The Fed on Wednesday said it will continue to evaluate "the timing and overall amounts" of its government securities purchases in light of evolving economic and financial conditions.

Cramdown Bill Faces Senate Opposition

The bill that would let judges modify the mortgages of home owners in bankruptcy, known as cramdown, is facing still more troubles as it moves to the U.S. Senate.

"I hope we can muster the courage and find the votes, although I know it will be hard," says Senate Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin, an Illinois Democrat. "It's hard to imagine that today the mortgage bankers would have clout in this chamber, but they do."

The bill Senators are being asked to vote on a measure that would require home owners be at least two months delinquent and have an outstanding balance of less than $729,750 to qualify. If a bankruptcy judge lowers the amount they owe, borrowers would have to split any ultimate profit with the lender if they sell while in bankruptcy proceedings.

Scott E. Talbott, senior vice president of government affairs for the Financial Services Roundtable, predicted that passage is unlikely. "The uphill battle that the bill has faced for years has continued. It will be very difficult to garner the votes," he says.

Source: Washington Post, Renae Merle (04/28/2009)

North Carolina has the least expensive closing costs!

New York, Texas, Florida. For the second straight year, those are the most expensive states in which to get a mortgage. Nationwide, the average origination and title fees on a $200,000 mortgage this year totaled $3,118, according to Bankrate's annual survey of closing costs. The fees in the survey don't include taxes, insurance or prepaid items such as prorated interest or homeowner association dues.

Fees in New York City were highest, averaging $4,016 in Bankrate's survey. Houston came in second, with fees that averaged $3,975. After that came Buffalo, N.Y., with fees averaging $3,845, and then Miami, at $3,683. North Carolina had the least expensive closing costs in the survey, at an average of $2,650. The previous year, Indiana took the last spot.

The annual survey of online lenders is conducted by obtaining fee estimates for a $200,000 mortgage in each state's most populous city.

Source: Bankrate.com

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Is FHA key to housing turnaround?

Federal Housing Administration loans can be a very good deal for homebuyers, especially those who don't have a lot of cash or whose credit rating isn't stellar, experts say. FHA loans now account for 20 percent of new mortgages, up from 3 percent in 2006. What's more, the number of authorized FHA lenders has increased 500 percent in two years.

Other benefits of FHA loans include easy loan modifications for borrowers who fall behind, easy refinancing plans if rates decline, and low rates overall, which don't rise if the borrower has a low credit score. There are no income restrictions on FHA loans, so even borrowers with good incomes may find them attractive.

FHA loans still require a pre-settlement inspection of the home, but the process isn't nearly as arduous as it once was, says George Hanzimanolis, past president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.

Source: CNNMoney.com"

Gmail - REAL Trends E-mail UCertified green professionals on the rise

More than 2,725 builders, remodelers and other homebuilding industry professionals have now achieved the Certified Green Professional designation. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) designation is awarded after the successful completion of 24 hours of classroom instruction on green building techniques and business practices, two years' industry experience, a commitment to continuing education and adherence to the CGP code of ethics."

Real estate prices seen leveling

Nationally, housing prices have been in free fall for two years. According to the Altos 10-city Composite Price Index, there are some fragile signs of stability. Though the hardest hit markets, Las Vegas in particular, has not seen any slowing in the housing bust.

The Altos 10-City Composite Price Index increased by 1.1 percent during both March and the first quarter of 2009. Prices of properties listed for-sale increased in 18 of 26 major markets and were down in eight markets according to the Real-Time Housing Market Report, jointly published by Altos Research and market analysis consultancy Real IQ.

Asking prices fell at the fastest rate during March in Salt Lake City followed closely by Las Vegas - down 4.0% and 3.9% respectively. Listing prices of single-family homes rose at the fastest rate in San Francisco-up 3.8% in March. Prices in seven markets-New York, Boston, Houston, Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami and Charlotte-are now showing three months of sequential listing price increases."

$8000 Loan for an $8000 payback?

States Contemplate Loans for Home Buyers
The $8,000 first-time home buyer mortgage tax credit, which is part of the Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, is a great boon. But, it doesn’t help people who don’t have money for a down payment and closing costs.

Now some states are contemplating offering an $8,000 loan to home buyers before they close on the condition that they repay the loans as soon as they get their federal tax credits.

The idea has been adopted in Missouri, which advances the money to those who take out first mortgages offered through the state’s housing finance authority. The New York State Builders Association is lobbying the State of New York Mortgage Agency to adopt a similar strategy.

“A lot of states are trying to get through the technical aspects of this," says Gregory Brown, an assistant vice president for government affairs at the National Association of Home Builders. "I feel very confident they’ll find a way to make it work.”

Meanwhile, some home builders are taking matters into their own hands, offering programs that purchase the tax credit from borrowers prior to closing.

“This is a legitimate monetizing program that actually works,” says David Abrahamson, vice president of S.E. operations for American Home Key Mortgage Company, which makes the loans for many participating builders in the southeast.

Source: The New York Times, Bob Tedeschi and HousingWire.com, Paul Jackson (04/10/2009)

Friday, April 10, 2009

Origins of the Easter Bunny

The Easter bunny has its origin in pre-Christian fertility lore. Then, it was called the "Easter hare" after the wilder, leaner, more rare group entirely in the genus Lepus. Both rabbits and hares were the most fertile animals known (bearing four to eight litters a year, with three to eight young in each litter) and served as symbols of new life during the spring season. The Easter hare was a sacred companion of the goddess of spring, Eostre.

The bunny was first used as a symbol of Easter in 16th century Germany and was introduced to American folklore by the German settlers who arrived in the Pennsylvania Dutch country during the 1700s. The arrival of the "Oschter Haws" was considered "childhood's greatest pleasure" next to a visit from Christ-Kindel on Christmas Eve. The children believed that if they were good, the "Oschter Haws" would lay a nest of colored eggs.

Thus the custom of making nests also spread to America. Children would build their nest in a secluded place in the home, the barn or the garden. Boys would use their caps and girls their bonnets to make the nests. The use of elaborate Easter baskets would come later as the tradition of the Easter bunny spread through out the country.

In honor of revival, renewal and resurrection, have a Happy Easter!

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Pulte Homes to buy Centex

$1.3 billion deal will create nation's largest homebuilder. Both companies are major players in the Charlotte area.

By J.W. Elphinstone
Associated Press

NEW YORK Pulte Homes Inc. is buying Centex Corp. for $1.3 billion in stock in a deal that will create the nation's largest homebuilder and could spark further consolidation in an industry that is suffering the worst real estate recession in a generation.

The transaction of the homebuilders – both major players in the Charlotte region – will combine Pulte's strength in active-adult and retirement housing with Centex's hefty market share of first-time homebuyers.

The acquisition also will give Pulte large tracts of land in Texas and the Carolinas, two of the most resilient real estate markets, and a presence in 29 states and Washington, D.C.

The new company, which also will include the Del Webb, DiVosta and Fox & Jacobs brand homes, will keep the Pulte name and headquarters in Bloomfield Hills, Mich. There will be an unspecified number of job cuts.

“It allows us to not only survive, but thrive in any economic climate,” said Richard Dugas Jr., Pulte's president and chief executive, who will retain those titles over the combined enterprise.

Pulte had the largest market share in the eight-county Charlotte region in the fourth quarter of 2008, and the second-largest for the whole year, with 9 percent of all single-family detached homes, residential real estate consultant Chuck Graham said. Centex ended last year with the fifth-largest market share in the region, 5 percent of single-family detached homes. That was up from about 4 percent for the rest of 2008, Graham said. In Mecklenburg, the builder had 203 permits in 2008, the most of any builder.

But by last year, Centex was already pulling back in the Charlotte area, combining its Charlotte and Raleigh offices in Raleigh and maintaining a minimal staff in Charlotte, Graham said. Pulte, on the other hand, was poised for growth in the region, particularly with its acquisition of Del Webb, meant to cater to the surging active-adult population, he said.

Wednesday's deal touched off investors speculation that other homebuilders with battered stock prices may be easy targets.

Faced with a 75 percent slide in new-home sales from the peak in mid-2005, homebuilders have slashed construction and prices but have been slow to join forces.

This deal “is a game-changer, pure and simple,” said Centex Chairman and Chief Executive Timothy Eller, who will become Pulte's vice chairman and will work as a consultant for two years following the acquisition's completion.

The combined company will have twice the revenue of its next largest rival, D.R. Horton Inc. Pulte and Centex pulled in a total of $11.6 billion in the last 12 months, compared with D.R. Horton's $5.8 billion.

The new industry behemoth also will be better poised to take advantage of the market's recovery, which executives said is just beginning.

Pulte lost almost $3.73 billion over the past two years, more than wiping out all of its profits for the prior three years. Centex lost $2.66 billion last year, erasing its earnings for the prior four years.

Shares in both companies have lost more than half their value from their 52-week highs last year.

Pulte is offering Centex shareholders 0.975 shares of its common stock for each share of Centex that they own. The transaction is valued at $10.50 per Centex share based on Pulte's Tuesday closing stock price of $10.77. That represents a 38 percent premium to Centex's closing price of $7.62 Tuesday.

Staff Writer Kirsten Valle contributed

EW YORK Pulte Homes Inc. is buying Centex Corp. for $1.3 billion in stock in a deal that w

NC Interactive Foreclosure Map

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/104/story/642521.html

Slowing decline in home sales

According to Radar Logic's January 2009 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report, sales in the 25 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) the report tracks declined 6 percent in the year ending January 2009, compared to 36 percent in the prior year.

The slowing annual decline of transactions was due to an increase in motivated sales, which Radar Logic defines as sales to third parties at foreclosure auctions and sales of foreclosed homes by financial institutions and foreclosure service firms. While this rapid growth in motivated sales reflects the increase in foreclosures over the last year, it also reflects significant demand for homes that are priced at 'motivated' discounts.

REAL Trends Comment: As readers can tell the housing market appears to show signs of improvement over the past few months. However, various sources of data show more of a seasonal improvement and not a cyclical improvement. Simply put even in tough markets we expect to see an improvement as we enter the spring months and a decline as we enter the fall of each year. That is a seasonal change not a cyclical change.

A cyclical improvement will show when sales, inventory and time on market changes are positive when comparing the same month of this year to the same in month in"

Ten Cities Where Americans Are Relocating


Lauren Sherman, 03.30.09, 04:00 PM EST

U.S. migration may be down overall, but these vibrant metro areas are still attracting newcomers.

Unemployment is on the rise, credit is tight, and consumers aren't spending--which means they aren't picking up and moving much either. Very few places in America saw significant population growth in 2008.

But the buzzing metropolitan area of Denver bucked that trend. Its population increased by 2.17% in 2008. In 2007, it increased by 2.09%. In 2008, Denver was the 10th-fastest growing metro area in the U.S.

What's Denver got that other places don't?

For one, according to an October 2008 survey conducted by Pew Research Center, Denver is the most popular city in America. People like it for its skiing, culture and vibrant nightlife, as well as its business opportunities. As of January 2009, the metro area's unemployment rate was 6.5%. That's high, but still two percentage points below the national average of 8.5% for the same month.

Despite the overall economic slowdown, some parts of the country keep on moving ahead, attracting more and more newcomers--even if it's at a slower pace than in more sound economic times. These places still offer a semblance of stability, as well as great weather, cultural life and, in many cases, affordability.

Behind the Numbers
To determine the fastest-growing metro areas in the country, we used 2008 population estimates for metropolitan statistical areas with a population over 1 million, released March 19, 2009, by the U.S. Census Bureau. MSAs are geographic entities defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget for use by federal agencies in collecting, tabulating and publishing federal statistics.

We then compared the 2008 population estimates to the previous year's data to see which areas had grown the most, percentage-wise.

Nine places fared even better than Denver, though they share similar qualities: more business opportunities, better weather and more affordable housing. The top three areas according to the data are Raleigh, N.C., ranking first, which jumped 4.29% to nearly 1.9 million; Austin, Texas, which came in second, with a 3.77% increase to almost 1.7 million; and Charlotte, N.C., which moved up 3.36% to 1.7 million.

All these areas' increases were smaller in 2008 than they were in 2007, (Raleigh increased by 4.7% in 2007, Austin by 4.29% and Charlotte by 4.2%), but a slight slowdown is not necessarily a bad thing, according to William Frey, Ph.D., a demographer at the Brookings Institute, an independent research and policy group based in Washington, D.C. "Part of the story here is the rapid rise in growth in the middle of decade," says Frey. "That growth was unnatural."

The in-migration that happened in the middle of this decade certainly had a lot to do with the housing boom. When that went bust, so did those crazy population balloons. But these particular places are still growing because instead of building an economy that relies heavily on one industry (in Las Vegas, it's hospitality; in New York, it's finance), most of the metro areas on our list serve as headquarters for a diverse range of companies.

For example, Austin's biggest employers include University of Texas, Advanced Micro Devices (nyse: AMD - news - people ) and Dell (nasdaq: DELL - news - people ). That wide range might have something to do with the area's relatively low January 2009 unemployment rate of 6.4%.

This is the opposite of what happened in true housing boom-and-bust towns like Las Vegas. In 2004, Vegas--a foreclosure mecca--saw a population increase of 4.6%, followed by 3.66% in 2005, 3.98% in 2006 and 3.22% in 2007. In 2008, that number fell to 2%.

The Power of Business
When it comes down to it, a buzzing business community is a metro area's most important characteristic, says Sean C. Safford, a professor at the University of Chicago and author of Why the Garden Club Couldn't Save Youngstown: The Transformation of the Rust Belt. He studies the social economics of U.S. cities and metro areas.

"Perception is driven by the vibrancy of the companies in an area," he says.

However, that doesn't mean that these metros won't suffer from a slowdown in population when 2009's numbers are released next year. Charlotte, for example, reported a 10.5% unemployment rate for January 2009, likely related to the fact that Bank of America (nyse: BAC - news - people ) is headquartered there. That high unemployment rate almost guarantees stunted growth in 2009.

"We don't quite yet know what the impact [of the ongoing recession] will be for 2009 populations," says Frey. "But we do know it's not going to get any better."

Indeed, where Americans are relocating today has little to do with where they'll be moving tomorrow.

Top Economists Say Recovery Has Begun

Economic recovery is about making people feel more confident, says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com.

Zandi evidenced increasing home sales and gains in the stock market are some promising signs that the worst is over and people will start spending again.

“We’re starting to see some pent-up demand for goods,” he says.

But Zandi warns that the situation is still fragile. "Confidence is a very fickle thing. It can go from abject pessimism that pervades now to a more balanced view of the world rather quickly.”

Robert Brusca of FAO Economics is predicting strong growth in the last half of the year and a quick recovery for the labor market. "You've lost 5 million jobs. It shouldn't be hard to put 2.5 million jobs back on rather quickly after you hit bottom," he said.

Joseph Carson, chief economist at AllianceBernstein, calls improving home sales, a rising stock market, and better-than-expected retail sales in February and March good signs of a turnaround. By the time President Obama’s stimulus package takes effect, the economy will be ready, he says.

"The stimulus has a much better chance of working if trends are already turning up than if it needs to halt a decline," he said.

Source: CNNMoney, Chris Isidore (04/06/2009)