The index of U.S. leading indicators rose above expectations in December, posting a 0.3 percent month-over-month gain, according to the Conference Board. The consensus had forecast a 0.2 percent month-over-month decline. November's level was unrevised at -0.4 percent. Over the past six months, the leading index has fallen 5 percent, with five out of the 10 components showing contractions.
The leading index saw positive contributions from consumer goods orders, capital goods, M2 money supply, and the interest rate spread, while consumer expectations were flat. The average workweek fell 0.25 percent from the prior month.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Existing home sales rise
Existing-home sales rose unexpectedly while inventory declined, led by a surge of sales in the West, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales jumped 6.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.74 million units in December from a downwardly revised pace of 4.45 million units in November, but are 3.5 percent below the 4.91 million-unit pace in December 2007.
For all of 2008 there were 4,912,000 existing-home sales, which was 13.1 percent below the 5,652,000 transactions recorded in 2007. This is the lowest volume since 1997 when there were 4,371,000 sales.
Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 11.7 percent to 3.68 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.3-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 11.2-month supply in November. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $175,400 in December, which is 15.3 percent below December 2007 when the median was $207,000.
REAL Trends Comment: As we reported in the December REAL Trends Housing Market Report, sales in December were better than expected given the drum beat of negative economic and housing market news. Yes prices are down, nationally somewhere in the 11-14% range, but sales show signs of firming.
Have we reached bottom? With unemployment rising we expect continued downward pressure on sales and prices, but declining inventory and higher affordability may take the edge off substantial further declines in all but a few markets.
Where sales and prices have tumbled the most, the market is more robust. The more brokerage firms insist on accurate pricing among their listings, the less overpriced homes there are on the market, the quicker markets will return to health.
For all of 2008 there were 4,912,000 existing-home sales, which was 13.1 percent below the 5,652,000 transactions recorded in 2007. This is the lowest volume since 1997 when there were 4,371,000 sales.
Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 11.7 percent to 3.68 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.3-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 11.2-month supply in November. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $175,400 in December, which is 15.3 percent below December 2007 when the median was $207,000.
REAL Trends Comment: As we reported in the December REAL Trends Housing Market Report, sales in December were better than expected given the drum beat of negative economic and housing market news. Yes prices are down, nationally somewhere in the 11-14% range, but sales show signs of firming.
Have we reached bottom? With unemployment rising we expect continued downward pressure on sales and prices, but declining inventory and higher affordability may take the edge off substantial further declines in all but a few markets.
Where sales and prices have tumbled the most, the market is more robust. The more brokerage firms insist on accurate pricing among their listings, the less overpriced homes there are on the market, the quicker markets will return to health.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Banks offer mortgage rates below 5%
Mortgage rates continue to drop, and some of the nation's largest banks are offering loans below 5 percent. Chase Bank advertised a 4.75 percent 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, Wells Fargo's rate was 4.875 percent, and Bank of America was at 5 percent on their Web sites recently. The rates are for borrowers who have a 20 percent downpayment and an excellent credit rating.
The new, lower rates are a result of the Federal Reserve's $500 billion purchase of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. These new lower rates should increase demand for mortgage refinancing, but it is unclear whether they will be enough to spur a growth in new mortgages.
The average rate for a 30-year mortgage dropped for the tenth consecutive week, according to Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which indicated the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate dropped nearly 2 percent from 5.10 percent for the week ending January 1, to 5.01 percent for the week ending January 8. The rate is down nearly 15 percent from this time last year, and is at its lowest level since Freddie Mac began tracking the data in 1971. The Fed buy-up of mortgage-backed securities has boosted the price of securities, and in turn, dropped interest rates.
Source: DSNEWS.com
REAL Trends Comment: Perhaps the housing market is finally seeing the direct benefit from Federal intervention into the mortgage market. Rates are at record lows and the REAL Trends Housing Market Report to be released on Friday, January 16 will show significant improvement in housing sales throughout the country compared both to November data and year ago December closings.
The new, lower rates are a result of the Federal Reserve's $500 billion purchase of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. These new lower rates should increase demand for mortgage refinancing, but it is unclear whether they will be enough to spur a growth in new mortgages.
The average rate for a 30-year mortgage dropped for the tenth consecutive week, according to Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which indicated the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate dropped nearly 2 percent from 5.10 percent for the week ending January 1, to 5.01 percent for the week ending January 8. The rate is down nearly 15 percent from this time last year, and is at its lowest level since Freddie Mac began tracking the data in 1971. The Fed buy-up of mortgage-backed securities has boosted the price of securities, and in turn, dropped interest rates.
Source: DSNEWS.com
REAL Trends Comment: Perhaps the housing market is finally seeing the direct benefit from Federal intervention into the mortgage market. Rates are at record lows and the REAL Trends Housing Market Report to be released on Friday, January 16 will show significant improvement in housing sales throughout the country compared both to November data and year ago December closings.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Charlotte home prices fall; still among best markets
Charlotte home sales prices continued sliding in October, according to a popular price index released this morning.
Still, Charlotte remains among the best of 20 major urban markets in the monthly index and well below the groups record drop of more than 18 percent.
Still, Charlotte remains among the best of 20 major urban markets in the monthly index and well below the groups record drop of more than 18 percent.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)